The writer is an economist, anchor, geopolitical analyst
and the President of the All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
Pakistan’s national security is characterised by a complex interplay of traditional and non-traditional threats, requiring a multifaceted response. The shift from a military-centric focus to addressing broader internal vulnerabilities reflects global trends, but implementation challenges necessitate innovative solutions and international cooperation. A holistic strategy, integrating military, economic, and environmental dimensions, is essential to safeguard Pakistan’s future stability and prosperity. This reflects the dual focus on historical military threats, particularly with India, and emerging challenges like terrorism, economic issues, and environmental risks, aligning with the text’s emphasis on the evolving security landscape as of April 2025. National security is traditionally defined as the protection of a state’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political stability, primarily through military means. However, the concept has evolved globally to encompass non-traditional threats, such as terrorism, economic instability, climate change, water scarcity, food insecurity, and health pandemics, which can undermine a nation’s stability and prosperity. Non-traditional threats have become increasingly critical for Pakistan, reflecting global trends where internal stability is as vital as external defence. Terrorism remains a significant challenge, with the 2025 Global Terrorism Index ranking Pakistan second globally, reporting 1,099 attacks in 2024, a doubling from 517 in 2023, resulting in 1,081 deaths. In Pakistan, this evolution is particularly pronounced due to its geopolitical position and internal challenges. Bordered by India, Afghanistan, Iran, and China, Pakistan faces a complex security landscape that has shifted from focusing solely on military threats to addressing broader, often internal, vulnerabilities. This explores that transition, providing detailed data, facts, figures, and references to illustrate the changing nature of national security in Pakistan as of April 2025. Pakistan’s national security has evolved from focusing on military threats to addressing broader issues like terrorism and climate change. It seems likely that traditional threats, such as conflicts with India, remain significant, while non-traditional threats like economic instability and water scarcity are increasingly critical. The evidence leans toward Pakistan’s National Security Policy (2022-2026) aiming to balance both types, but implementation faces challenges due to resource constraints. National security in Pakistan has traditionally centred on protecting its borders and sovereignty, especially against military threats from India. However, recent years have seen a shift, with non-traditional threats like terrorism, economic instability, and climate change gaining prominence. This evolution reflects global trends where security is no longer just about armies but also about ensuring the well-being of citizens and the nation’s resilience against diverse challenges. Pakistan’s main traditional threat comes from its rivalry with India, marked by historical wars and ongoing tensions over Kashmir. India’s defence budget for 2025 is around $78 billion, compared to Pakistan’s $7.64 billion, highlighting a significant asymmetry. Both nations also have nuclear capabilities, with Pakistan estimated at 170 warheads and India at 164, adding complexity to their strategic balance. Pakistan’s traditional security threats are deeply rooted in its adversarial relationship with India, marked by three major wars (1948, 1965, and 1971) and ongoing tensions over Kashmir. The asymmetry in military capabilities is stark, with India’s defence budget for 2025 at approximately $78 billion, a 9.5% increase from the previous year, compared to Pakistan’s $7.64 billion for 2024-2025, which saw a 14.5% increase but remains constrained by economic challenges. This disparity is further highlighted by military personnel numbers, with India having 1.455 million active personnel compared to Pakistan’s 654,000, according to the 2025 Global Firepower Index. Nuclear capabilities add another layer of complexity. As of 2025, Pakistan is estimated to have around 170 nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting growth to 220-250 by 2025, while India has approximately 164 warheads. Pakistan’s strategy emphasises tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s conventional superiority, while India has reconsidered its “No First Use” policy, increasing escalation risks. Pakistan’s traditional security threats are deeply rooted in its adversarial relationship with India, marked by three major wars and ongoing tensions over Kashmir. Nuclear capabilities add another layer of complexity with more regional dynamics, including tensions with Afghanistan and the strategic partnership with China via CPEC, further shaping Pakistan’s security landscape. Non-traditional threats are increasingly vital for Pakistan. Terrorism, especially from groups like TTP, saw 1,099 attacks in 2024, causing 1,081 deaths, ranking Pakistan second globally in the 2025 Global Terrorism Index. As of April 2025, Pakistan faces ongoing cross-border tensions, with airstrikes into Afghanistan targeting TTP hideouts and border clashes along the Durand Line. Internally, terrorism remains a concern, with recent attacks like the BLA hijacking of a train in March 2025, killing 31. Regional dynamics also play a role, with tensions along the Afghanistan border due to TTP activities and cross-border airstrikes in 2025. Regional dynamics also play a role, with tensions along the Afghanistan border due to TTP activities and cross-border airstrikes in 2025.
Pakistan must navigate its complex international relationships, particularly with China and the United States, while also focusing on sustainable development and resilience against environmental threats. A holistic security strategy that integrates military, economic, and environmental considerations will be crucial for ensuring Pakistan’s stability and prosperity in the years to come.
The evolving concept of national security in Pakistan reflects a shift from traditional military threats to a broader spectrum of non-traditional challenges. While conflicts with India and regional dynamics remain significant, terrorism, economic instability, climate change, water scarcity, food insecurity, and health pandemics pose equally critical risks. Pakistan’s NSP 2022-2026 aims to address both, but effective implementation requires overcoming internal and external obstacles. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion initiative, integrates economic security into traditional frameworks, requiring protection of critical infrastructure. The TTP, responsible for 482 attacks in 2024, has seen a 91% increase in fatalities, linked to safe havens in Afghanistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion initiative, integrates economic security into traditional frameworks, requiring protection of critical infrastructure. Pakistan’s Response and Future Outlook Pakistan’s National Security Policy (2022-2026) addresses both threat types, focusing on modernising defence and enhancing human security through initiatives like CPEC and Ehsaas. Recent developments, like cross-border airstrikes and economic reforms, show ongoing efforts, but challenges like political instability and resource constraints remain. The future requires a holistic approach to ensure stability. Pakistan’s National Security Policy (NSP) 2022-2026, released in January 2022, reflects this evolution, identifying five domains of war—land, air, sea, cyber, and space—and emphasising indigenisation and modernisation of defence capabilities. It addresses non-traditional threats through a comprehensive approach to human security, including economic security, gender security, and socioeconomic development. Economic instability, with a projected GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025, still faces high debt levels. Climate change, causing floods affecting 33 million in 2022 and projected water scarcity by 2025, threatens food security and public health. Economic instability, with a projected GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, faces high debt levels, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 70% and $73 billion due by 2025. Inflation dropped to 4.1% by early 2025, with FDI growing 20% in the first half of fiscal year 2025, but structural reforms are needed. Economic reforms show progress, with inflation at 0.7% in April 2025, the lowest in 30 years, but debt restructuring is crucial. Climate change continues to exacerbate water scarcity and food insecurity, with 1.3 million flood-affected persons still displaced since 2022. International relations, particularly with China and the U.S., will shape future security, with U.S. sanctions on missile programs highlighting nuclear concerns. Key initiatives include CPEC, which is expected to boost economic growth, and the Ehsaas program for social protection, which aims to meet citizens’ needs and enhance human rights. The policy recognises the Indian Ocean as a contested space and prioritises protecting critical infrastructure, but implementation faces challenges due to political instability and resource constraints. Climate change poses severe threats, with Pakistan ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries. The 2022 floods affected 33 million, causing $15 billion in damages, and heatwaves in 2024 led to thousands of heatstroke cases. By 2025, Pakistan is projected to face acute water scarcity, with per capita availability dropping to 860 cubic meters, impacting agriculture, which uses 60-70% of water and contributes 43% of GHG emissions. Food security is threatened, with 60% of the population reliant on rain-fed agriculture, facing risks from changing precipitation patterns. Health pandemics, highlighted by COVID-19, show vulnerabilities, with the National Action Plan for Health Security (NAPHS) 2024-2028 aiming to improve preparedness, but healthcare spending at only 2% of GDP ranks Pakistan 154th out of 195 countries.
Pakistan’s national security has evolved to include non-traditional threats like terrorism and climate change, alongside traditional military concerns, recognising that threats to the nation’s stability and prosperity extend beyond traditional military challenges. A holistic approach, integrating military, economic, and environmental strategies, is essential for ensuring Pakistan’s stability and prosperity in the coming years. It seems likely that the National Security Policy (2022-2026) aims to balance both, but implementation faces challenges due to resource constraints. The evidence leans toward economic instability and water scarcity becoming increasingly critical, impacting stability and prosperity. While the adversarial relationship with India and regional dynamics continue to demand attention, non-traditional threats such as terrorism, economic instability, and climate change have become equally pressing. The National Security Policy (2022-2026) aims to address this broadened spectrum of threats through a comprehensive approach that includes modernising defence capabilities and enhancing human security. However, effective implementation of this policy is hindered by internal challenges such as political instability and resource constraints. Looking forward, Pakistan must navigate its complex international relationships, particularly with China and the United States, while also focusing on sustainable development and resilience against environmental threats. A holistic security strategy that integrates military, economic, and environmental considerations will be crucial for ensuring Pakistan’s stability and prosperity in the years to come.