The writer is an economist, anchor, geo-political analyst and
the President of All Pakistan Private Schools Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
In the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics, South Asia emerges as a region where historical enmities and contemporary alliances weave a complex narrative. The region is witnessing an unprecedented recalibration of diplomatic relations, heralding what might well be described as a new era of diplomacy. The South Asian region is witnessing a significant shift in its diplomatic landscape, marked by the emergence of unlikely alliances and a reconfiguration of existing relationships. As we navigate the early months of 2025, a series of unexpected diplomatic developments signal what may well be deemed a new epoch in regional diplomacy. This analysis seeks to unravel why India appears to be relinquishing its influence in countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Iran, while Pakistan fortifies its regional standing, particularly with Bangladesh, Afghanistan, China and others. Is this a failure of Indian diplomacy and security agencies or a successful strategy of Pakistan’s diplomacy and security agencies? South Asia has long been a region defined by its complex web of alliances and rivalries, where the echoes of historical conflicts resound through contemporary diplomatic engagements. The cessation of the US-led conflict in Afghanistan in 2021 and the changing political landscape in Bangladesh have created a fertile ground for new diplomatic engagements. The nascent entente between Pakistan and Bangladesh, facilitated by Muhammad Yunus’s encounter with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has yielded tangible dividends. The docking of a Pakistani cargo ship in a Bangladeshi port and the relaxation of visa regulations for Pakistani citizens are significant confidence-building measures. China’s growing presence in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan, has been significant for regional security. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated its strategic entrenchment in the region, with investments in ports, infrastructure, and defence cooperation. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has played a pivotal role in this shift. With significant investments in infrastructure, ports, and defence cooperation, China has strategically entrenched itself further in South Asia. The BRI’s influence stretches from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to potential expansions into Afghanistan, offering both economic incentives and strategic leverage, thereby reshaping regional security dynamics. India’s decision to partially reopen its embassy in Kabul in 2022 and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s meeting with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi signal a significant implication in New Delhi’s approach towards the Taliban. This development is a testament to India’s willingness to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia. These developments herald a seismic shift in the region’s diplomatic landscape, with far-reaching implications for regional dynamics. The India-Pakistan rivalry remains an enduring constant, casting a profound shadow over the region. The recent pronouncement of India’s army chief, Upendra Dwivedi, underscores the lingering tensions along the disputed border. Dwivedi’s remarks serve as a telling testament to the lingering tensions that persist nearly five years after the Ladakh clash, the most severe border crisis since the Indo-China war of 1962. Moreover, the mistrust that pervades the 2,100-mile frontier persists, despite the conclusion of a deal last October aimed at resuming border patrols and restoring troop positions to pre-crisis locations. This development serves as a poignant reminder that the aforementioned deal ought not be misconstrued as a precursor to a broader détente between India and China, given the entrenched disagreements and intensifying strategic competition that continues to define their relationship. Despite these developments, the region remains vulnerable to pressing shared challenges, most notably climate change. The paralysis of regional organizations, such as SAARC, impedes collective action on these issues. A cohesive regional approach is necessary to address these challenges, leveraging economic cooperation and technological exchange. South Asia’s bilateral surprises herald a new era of diplomacy in the region. As the region navigates these complex developments, it is essential to prioritize regional cooperation, address pressing shared challenges, and leverage economic cooperation to promote peace and stability. The burgeoning entente between India and the Taliban, coupled with the nascent rapprochement between Pakistan and Bangladesh, heralds a novel chapter in a venerable rivalry. The cessation of the protracted US-led conflict in Afghanistan in 2021, followed by the demise of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year tenure, has precipitated a paradigmatic shift in the region’s diplomatic landscape. The landscape, once rigidly shaped by longstanding enmity, now shows signs of flexibility, if not outright reconciliation, particularly in the relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh. The erstwhile improbable alliances have begun to take shape, with Indian officials engaging in diplomatic parleys with Taliban leaders, whilst Pakistan and Bangladesh have initiated a tentative yet significant rapport. This strategic pivot acknowledges the necessity of dialogue with non-traditional allies to safeguard and advance Pakistan’s interests in a volatile region. However, amidst these diplomatic novelties, the shadow of the India-Pakistan rivalry looms large, an enduring constant in South Asia’s geopolitical narrative. Despite a deal in October aimed at de-escalating border tensions, the mistrust and strategic competition between India and China persist, indicating that these diplomatic shifts are layered with complexities not easily resolved. The implications of these diplomatic shifts are profound. They suggest a South Asia where traditional alliances are under reconsideration, and new dialogues are being forged with both regional and global implications. Yet, the region remains encumbered by shared challenges, most notably climate change, which requires a collective regional response. As the old adage reminds us, The more things change, the more they stay the same, yet with deliberate action, this region might just prove that change can indeed bring about a new, more stable order.
Pakistan’s growing assertiveness is redefining South Asia’s dynamics, while India’s decline is creating space for new alliances and partnerships. As the regional power play unfolds, it remains to be seen whether India and Pakistan can transition from rivals to partners, ultimately shaping the future of regional diplomacy in South Asia.
As we navigate this new era of diplomacy, the focus must be on leveraging these diplomatic openings for broader peace and economic stability. One beholds a striking transformation wherein India, once a dominant regional power, finds its influence waning over nations such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Iran, and others, while Pakistan fortifies its ties within the region with remarkable alacrity. This shift can be attributed, in part, to Pakistan’s adept diplomacy and strategic engagements. Pakistan’s embrace of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been pivotal, with extensive economic corridors like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) fostering not only infrastructure development but also economic interdependence with regional neighbours. Recent data reveals Pakistan’s trade with China has ascended to new heights, reaching $27.8 billion in 2023, underscoring a robust partnership. Similarly, Pakistan has successfully maintained or enhanced its diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, where recent engagements with the Taliban have positioned Pakistan as a key interlocutor in regional stability, especially following the strategic use of the Chabahar port by India to bypass Pakistan, which has inadvertently strengthened Pakistan’s diplomatic leverage. In Bangladesh, the political shifts, including the recent change in government, have provided Pakistan with opportunities to mend historical rifts, evidenced by a significant increase in bilateral trade from $800 million in 2020 to over $1.2 billion in 2024. Furthermore, Sri Lanka, facing economic crises, has found in Pakistan a willing partner, not just in bilateral trade but also in strategic military cooperation, evidenced by the growing military exchanges and joint naval exercises. This scenario compels one to question the efficacy of Indian diplomacy. India’s aggressive stance, particularly the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir, has strained relations with neighbours, fostering a perception of hegemony rather than partnership. The lack of progress in regional bodies like SAARC, where India’s refusal to engage with Pakistan has paralyzed regional cooperation, contrasts sharply with Pakistan’s strategic, albeit selective, engagement in multilateral forums. Thus, one might posit that this scenario reflects not merely a diplomatic setback for India but also a testament to Pakistan’s strategic foresight in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, leveraging both economic and security partnerships to cultivate a sphere of influence that is increasingly robust and challenging to India’s once-dominant regional narrative. The engagement with the Taliban, the nascent reconciliation between Pakistan and Bangladesh, and China’s strategic investments all present opportunities for economic cooperation that could mitigate some of the region’s longstanding animosities. South Asia’s diplomatic landscape is at a pivotal juncture. The region must strive to convert these bilateral surprises into multilateral cooperation, focusing on shared threats like climate change, economic disparities, and security concerns. Only through such concerted efforts can South Asia hope to transcend the historical inertia of rivalry and step confidently into a future marked by mutual benefit and regional harmony. India’s apparent loss of influence in its neighbourhood can be attributed to several factors: India’s approach has sometimes been seen as domineering, particularly in economic and security policies, leading to pushback from smaller neighbours seeking more equitable partnerships. Delays in infrastructure projects, like those in Nepal and Bangladesh, have tarnished India’s image as a reliable partner. Furthermore, India’s economic diplomacy has been criticized for being protectionist, as seen in its trade policies with Bangladesh, which suffer from extensive tariff barriers. The change in government in Bangladesh, with its subsequent anti-India rhetoric, alongside the complex security dynamics in Sri Lanka with respect to Tamil issues, have complicated India’s regional strategy. Conversely, Pakistan has managed to strengthen its regional ties: Pakistan’s relationship with China through CPEC has not only provided economic benefits but also bolstered its strategic depth in the region. Despite historical tensions, Pakistan has found common ground with the Taliban, partly due to shared interests in curbing anti-Pakistan militancy and securing influence in Kabul. The recent diplomatic outreach has opened avenues for collaboration, potentially reducing India’s influence in a region where historical ties and strategic interests converge. There is a case to argue that India has not fully adapted to the evolving geopolitical landscape. Its reluctance to fully engage with new political realities in neighbouring countries, coupled with a somewhat insular economic policy, has contributed to its waning influence. Pakistan has adeptly played the card of economic diplomacy and strategic partnerships, particularly with China, to enhance its standing. The proactive engagement with Bangladesh and Afghanistan reflects a strategy of leveraging historical connections and current geopolitical shifts to its advantage. The recalibration of South Asian diplomacy in 2025 underscores a region in flux, where traditional rivalries are giving way to new forms of cooperation. For India, the challenge lies in recalibrating its diplomatic strategy to be more inclusive and responsive to regional sensitivities. Pakistan’s diplomatic manoeuvres might be seen as successful, but they are not without challenges, particularly in balancing internal security with external alliances. For the region to harness these shifts towards a more stable and prosperous future, a focus on multilateral cooperation is imperative. Addressing shared challenges such as climate change, economic integration, and regional security requires a departure from zero-sum games to a collective approach.
South Asia in 2025 finds itself at the cusp of a transformative era in diplomacy, where the reconfiguration of traditional alliances and the emergence of new partnerships are redefining regional dynamics. This new era of diplomacy is characterized by Pakistan’s strengthening regional ties. The apparent decline in India’s influence in neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Iran, juxtaposed with Pakistan’s strategic engagements, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its renewed relations with Afghanistan and Bangladesh, paints a picture of shifting geopolitical landscapes. While India’s diplomatic strategies might be seen as faltering due to perceived hegemony and protectionism, Pakistan’s approach has been one of leveraging economic diplomacy and strategic partnerships, notably with China, to enhance its regional stature. However, the enduring India-Pakistan rivalry and the complex interplay with China’s Belt and Road Initiative highlight the challenges ahead. For South Asia to move towards a future of stability and prosperity, it is crucial that these bilateral surprises evolve into a framework for multilateral cooperation, focusing on collective challenges like climate change, economic disparities, and security. The region’s ability to foster this new era of diplomacy will largely depend on its capacity to transcend historical animosities and embrace opportunities for mutual benefit and regional harmony. To navigate this complex landscape, it is essential for South Asia to prioritize regional cooperation, addressing pressing shared challenges like climate change, economic disparities, and security concerns. By leveraging these bilateral surprises into multilateral cooperation, South Asia can hope to transcend historical animosities and step confidently into a future marked by mutual benefit and regional harmony. The shifting tides in South Asia herald a significant transformation in the region’s geopolitical landscape. As Pakistan’s influence rises, India’s dominance appears to be waning. A new era of diplomacy is emerging, marked by bilateral surprises and an evolving balance of power. Pakistan’s growing assertiveness is redefining South Asia’s dynamics, while India’s decline is creating space for new alliances and partnerships. As the regional power play unfolds, it remains to be seen whether India and Pakistan can transition from rivals to partners, ultimately shaping the future of regional diplomacy in South Asia.