The writer is an economist, anchor, geopolitical analyst and
The President of All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
n the bustling port city of Tianjin, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, serving as a pivotal arena for reshaping global dynamics. Amid escalating tensions between major powers, the event underscored a deliberate pivot away from the American-dominated unipolar world order toward a more balanced multipolar framework. With leaders from China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, and other member states in attendance, the summit not only highlighted emerging alliances but also exposed lingering fault lines that could define the future of international relations. The recent Tianjin SCO Summit marks a significant milestone in the steady shift from unipolarity to multipolarity, showcasing the organization’s growing influence in shaping a more equitable global order. With over 20 world leaders and delegations from 10 international organizations in attendance, the summit demonstrated the SCO’s commitment to security cooperation, economic connectivity, and cultural understanding. At the heart of this gathering was China’s assertive diplomacy, positioning itself as the architect of a counterweight to Western hegemony. President Xi Jinping, in his keynote address, reiterated his vision of a “community with a shared future for mankind,” a catchphrase that has become synonymous with Beijing’s push for inclusive global governance. This rhetoric, echoed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, found tangible validation in Tianjin. Analytically, the Tianjin Summit crystallizes the inexorable transition to multipolarity. The U.S.-centric order, once unchallenged, is fraying under the weight of alternative blocs like the SCO, BRICS, and ASEAN-led initiatives. China’s economic clout, combined with Russia’s military prowess and Iran’s strategic positioning, forms a formidable axis that challenges Western sanctions and narratives. Yet, this multipolar world is not without risks; it demands mature diplomacy to prevent fragmentation into rival spheres. For the SCO to thrive, members must prioritize collective security over bilateral animosities, transforming rhetoric into actionable unity. President Xi’s leadership was on full display as he rallied a coalition of nations disillusioned with the U.S.-led international order, from economic sanctions to military alliances like NATO and AUKUS. The summit’s declarations emphasized mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference—principles that directly challenge Washington’s interventionist policies and efforts to “contain” China’s rise. The SCO’s emergence as a significant player in global geopolitics underscores the waning era of unipolar dominance, with the organization providing a platform for dialogue outside traditional power blocs. The SCO’s pivotal role in the evolving international multipolarity highlights its character as a platform for dialogue among nations in the Global South, promoting cooperation and development goals. The SCO’s pragmatic diplomacy and functional cooperation offer an alternative path for regional stability in a world increasingly defined by turbulence and shifting alliances. For war-torn nations like Russia and Iran, the SCO provided a vital platform to articulate their regional and international narratives. Putin, facing ongoing isolation from the West due to the Ukraine conflict, used the forum to advocate for enhanced energy cooperation and security ties within Eurasia. Similarly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian highlighted Tehran’s role in combating extremism and fostering Middle Eastern stability, framing Iran’s nuclear program as a defensive measure against external threats. These presentations were not mere speeches; they represented a collective defiance, allowing these states to bypass Western-dominated institutions like the UN Security Council and forge alternative pathways for dialogue and trade. Preceding the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s whirlwind tour of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan exemplified Beijing’s proactive approach to regional connectivity. Wang’s itinerary focused on bolstering the SCO’s core pillars: enhancing security dialogues, deepening law enforcement cooperation, and intensifying the battle against transnational terrorism. In Afghanistan, he stressed the need to eliminate breeding grounds for extremism, aligning with the organization’s mission to promote stability across Central and South Asia. These efforts reflect the SCO’s evolution from a security-focused bloc into a multifaceted entity addressing economic integration and infrastructure development, such as through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A notable highlight was Wang’s visit to India, which signaled a thaw in Sino-Indian relations strained by border disputes and geopolitical rivalries. To sweeten the deal, Wang announced the lifting of Chinese export restrictions on key commodities, including fertilizers, rare earth magnets, critical minerals, and tunnel boring machines—items crucial for India’s industrial and agricultural sectors. This gesture was interpreted as a strategic olive branch, aimed at drawing New Delhi deeper into the SCO fold and away from its Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) commitments with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. India’s participation in the Tianjin Summit reveals a nuanced balancing act. Historically, New Delhi has sought to downplay the SCO’s significance to avoid alienating its Western partners, particularly the U.S. Yet, in Tianjin, Prime Minister Narendra Modi leveraged the platform to affirm India’s standing in the Global South. By engaging actively in discussions on counter-terrorism and economic collaboration, India signaled its willingness to diversify alliances, even as it maintains ties with Washington. This shift underscores a broader trend: emerging powers are increasingly viewing multipolarity not as a threat, but as an opportunity to amplify their voices on the global stage. However, the summit’s promise was tempered by persistent internal frictions, particularly between India and Pakistan. While other SCO members have successfully mitigated differences—through bilateral talks and joint exercises—the Indo-Pakistani rivalry continues to hinder progress. Ongoing border tensions, accusations of state-sponsored terrorism, and historical grievances obstruct the organization’s primary objectives: combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism. For instance, Pakistan’s emphasis on Kashmir as a flashpoint clashed with India’s focus on cross-border militancy, leading to diluted consensus on security protocols. If unaddressed, these divisions could undermine the SCO’s effectiveness, allowing external powers to exploit rifts and perpetuate unipolar influences in the region. Attended by leaders from member states including China, Russia, India, Iran, Pakistan, and newly joined Belarus, as well as observers like North Korea, the summit underscored the SCO’s evolution from a regional security forum into a broader platform challenging the post-Cold War unipolar order dominated by the United States. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s keynote address emphasized building a “community with a shared future,” while announcing initiatives like accelerating a new development bank and enhancing sci-tech cooperation. The adoption of 24 key documents, including the Tianjin Declaration and the SCO Development Strategy until 2035, highlighted commitments to multipolarity, regional security, and economic integration. This event not only solidified alliances among non-Western powers but also posed direct threats to U.S. strategic interests, signaling an accelerating shift toward a multipolar world where influence is distributed among multiple centers of power. The Tianjin Summit marks a deliberate and steady transition from unipolarity—characterized by U.S. hegemony in international institutions, finance, and security—to a multipolar framework where emerging powers like China and Russia assert greater autonomy. Founded in 2001 primarily for counterterrorism and border security in Central Asia, the SCO has expanded to include economic and technological dimensions, now representing over 40% of the world’s population and a significant share of global GDP. The 2025 summit’s outcomes, such as the Tianjin Declaration condemning terrorism without “double standards” and reaffirming AI and sci-tech collaboration, reflect a collective push against Western-led narratives on global governance. For the U.S., this significance is ominous. The SCO’s emphasis on a “multipolar world” directly challenges American exceptionalism and institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Xi’s proposal for a SCO development bank aims to provide alternatives to U.S.-dominated financing, potentially accelerating de-dollarization efforts already underway through mechanisms like BRICS payment systems. Moreover, the summit’s focus on regional security and connectivity—evident in commitments to enhance trade and infrastructure—undermines U.S. strategies like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which seek to contain China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The presence of U.S. adversaries, including Russia and Iran, further amplifies the SCO as a counterweight to NATO and QUAD alliances, fostering a bloc that views U.S. sanctions and interventions as relics of unipolar overreach.
Whether this shift leads to stability or heightened competition remains to be seen, but the SCO’s growing influence suggests the multipolar tide is irreversible. In this new landscape, nations like China are not just participants; they are the navigators.
In a broader geopolitical context, the summit aligns with ongoing global realignments. Amidst U.S. domestic uncertainties, such as potential policy shifts under a second Trump administration, the SCO’s 10-year Development Strategy until 2035 sets a roadmap for “fair and just” global order, prioritizing sovereignty and non-interference—principles often at odds with U.S. promotion of democracy and human rights. This shift is not abrupt but steady, building on previous expansions like Iran’s 2023 membership and Belarus’s 2024 accession, which extend the SCO’s reach into the Middle East and Europe. The move toward multipolarity, as exemplified by the Tianjin Summit, presents opportunities for diversified global cooperation. For SCO members, the proposed development bank and energy initiatives offer avenues for infrastructure funding without Western conditionalities, potentially boosting intra-bloc trade to rival the EU or NAFTA. Enhanced AI and sci-tech partnerships could foster innovation hubs in Eurasia, addressing shared challenges like climate change and cybersecurity outside U.S.-led frameworks. Globally, this shift opens doors for the Global South to negotiate better terms in international affairs, reducing dependency on the U.S. dollar and enabling alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. For instance, the summit’s condemnation of terrorism and push for connectivity could stabilize regions like Afghanistan and Central Asia, indirectly benefiting global supply chains. However, from a U.S. perspective, these opportunities are double-edged. While multipolarity could distribute the burden of global policing—allowing Washington to focus on domestic issues—it also invites U.S. engagement in new forums. Bilateral meetings at the summit, such as between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Modi, demonstrated potential for dialogue on border disputes, suggesting multipolarity might encourage pragmatic U.S. diplomacy in Asia. Despite its momentum, the shift to multipolarity faces internal and external hurdles. Geopolitical flashpoints, like the Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, test the SCO’s unity, with members like India balancing relations with both Moscow and Washington. Within the SCO, divergences persist: India’s cautious approach, driven by border tensions with China and its QUAD alignment with the U.S., limits deeper integration. Similarly, Pakistan-Iran rivalries and economic disparities among members could undermine cohesive action. Externally, U.S. countermeasures pose significant challenges. Sanctions on Russia and Iran, coupled with export controls on Chinese tech, aim to disrupt SCO initiatives. The summit’s reach remains “murky,” as noted by analysts, due to its non-binding nature and lack of enforcement mechanisms compared to Western alliances. For the U.S., the primary threat lies in erosion of influence. The SCO’s multipolar vision could fragment global norms, leading to parallel systems in finance (e.g., rivaling SWIFT) and security (e.g., joint military exercises challenging U.S. bases in Asia). This threatens U.S. economic primacy, as de-dollarization gains traction, and strategic dominance, as SCO energy pacts reduce leverage over oil supplies. Amidst a potential Trump return, with its tariff threats, the summit highlighted how U.S. isolationism might accelerate this shift, leaving allies like Europe and Japan vulnerable. To mitigate threats from this multipolar shift, the U.S. should adopt a multifaceted strategy. First, enhance alliances: Strengthen QUAD and AUKUS to counter SCO influence in the Indo-Pacific, while engaging India as a bridge to moderate the bloc’s anti-Western tilt. Second, pursue economic diplomacy: Invest in alternatives to BRI, like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure, to compete in the Global South without alienating partners. Reforming institutions like the IMF to be more inclusive could blunt appeals for SCO-style banks. Third, focus on soft power: Promote transparent tech standards and human rights dialogues to highlight contrasts with authoritarian SCO models, potentially fracturing internal cohesion. Finally, avoid escalation: Selective engagement, such as observer status in SCO forums, could provide insights and prevent full isolation. As the Tianjin Summit illustrates, multipolarity is inevitable; the U.S. must adapt by leading through innovation and alliances rather than dominance alone. The SCO has reinforced its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), bolstering regional security and cooperation in combating terrorism, extremism, and narcotics trafficking. Expanded trade pacts and contracts worth $655.5 million were signed between local companies and SCO partners, highlighting tangible progress in regional trade and economic cooperation. The SCO has promoted yuan-based settlements and digital payment systems, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and create a more autonomous regional trading system. The SCO’s expanding economic footprint signals a deeper shift towards a more distributed global order, with member states seeking to enhance trade links, harmonize customs frameworks, and create mechanisms for pooled funding. The SCO’s growth and diversity present opportunities for member states to assert their agency and shape a new template for globalization, prioritizing practical solutions over ideological confrontation. Challenges persist, particularly between India and China, and India and Pakistan, which can limit the organization’s ability to accomplish its primary objectives. The SCO should continue to prioritize functional cooperation over sweeping political agendas, leveraging its strengths in security, trade, and energy to drive regional growth and stability. Member states should focus on deepening trade links, harmonizing customs frameworks, and creating mechanisms for pooled funding to strengthen institutional depth and resilience. The SCO’s ethos of mutual respect and non-interference should be sustained, prioritizing practical solutions and dialogue over ideological confrontation. As the dust settles on Tianjin, one thing is clear: the era of unipolar dominance is waning. The summit’s outcomes—strengthened anti-terrorism frameworks, expanded trade pacts, and calls for a reformed global financial system—herald a more equitable order. Whether this shift leads to stability or heightened competition remains to be seen, but the SCO’s growing influence suggests the multipolar tide is irreversible. In this new landscape, nations like China are not just participants; they are the navigators.
The writer is an economist, anchor, geopolitical analyst and the President of All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com