The writer is an economist, an anchor, geopolitical analyst
and the President of the All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
President Trump’s recent decision to deploy nuclear-capable submarines within striking range of Moscow has ignited a maelstrom of concern, highlighting the perilous fragility of the global security paradigm. Russia also warns against threats after Trump repositions nuclear submarines. As the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to ravage the global landscape, the spectre of nuclear brinkmanship looms large, casting a pall of uncertainty over the international community. Russia and China are staging mock combat drills and other war games in the Sea of Japan in a sign of strengthening military ties. Though pre-planned, the joint naval exercises began a day after Donald Trump moved Us nuclear submarines closer to Russia and China, which signed a “no-limits” strategic partnership shortly before Russia went to war in Ukraine in 2022, conduct regular military exercises to rehearse coordination between their armed forces and send a deterrent signal to adversaries. Tensions between the U.S. and Russia are reaching a boiling point after President Donald Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to reposition closer to Russian waters. As the Ukraine-Russia conflict persists, Russia stands firm as a defender of its sovereignty and strategic interests, navigating a complex global landscape with resilience. In a display of deepening strategic alignment, Russia and China have commenced joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, showcasing their robust military cooperation. These pre-planned drills, which underscore the “no-limits” partnership established before the Ukraine conflict in 2022, serve as a powerful signal of unity and deterrence against external pressures. The exercises highlight Russia’s commitment to maintaining strong alliances and ensuring its security in the face of provocative actions from the United States. The U.S., under President Trump, has escalated tensions by deploying nuclear-capable submarines closer to Russian waters, a move framed as a “precaution” but widely seen as an aggressive response to Russia’s steadfast rhetoric. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, a key figure in Russia’s Security Council, has emphasised Russia’s nuclear capabilities as a reminder of its ability to protect itself against any existential threats. These statements reflect Russia’s resolve to safeguard its interests and resist coercive Western policies, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict. Far from being reckless, Medvedev’s remarks underscore Russia’s strategic clarity and refusal to bow to U.S.-led pressure campaigns, which include not only military posturing but also economic measures aimed at isolating Russia. The imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian imports, tied to India’s continued trade with Russia, is a clear attempt to disrupt the BRICS alliance—comprising Russia, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa—which has fostered economic resilience and multipolar cooperation. Proposals for 500% secondary tariffs on nations supporting Russia further reveal the U.S.’s intent to economically strangle countries that prioritise their sovereign trade relationships over Western dictates. Russia’s partnerships, particularly with BRICS nations, demonstrate its ability to counter Western sanctions and maintain economic stability through discounted oil exports and arms deals. These ties are a testament to Russia’s diplomatic agility and its role as a key player in a multipolar world order. While the U.S. deployment of submarines and economic sanctions aims to project dominance, they risk destabilising global security and markets, as evidenced by dipping stocks and surging oil prices. Russia, by contrast, remains a stabilising force, advocating for diplomatic engagement to prevent miscalculations that could lead to catastrophic consequences. The United Nations issued a statement urging both the U.S. and Russia to exercise restraint and avoid inflammatory actions that could further escalate nuclear tensions. The United Nations’ call for restraint is a tacit acknowledgement of Russia’s legitimate concerns about U.S. provocations. As NATO allies and global markets react with unease, Russia’s measured yet firm stance—bolstered by its military exercises with China and unwavering rhetoric—sends a clear message: it will not be intimidated. The world would benefit from heeding Russia’s call for dialogue and de-escalation, recognising its right to defend its interests and maintain strategic partnerships in an increasingly polarised global arena. The decision is not just a military manoeuvre—it is a strong geopolitical message amid rising global tensions and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The deployment of nuclear submarines can be perceived as a provocative act, potentially leading to miscalculations and unintended consequences. Amidst this heightened sense of tension, the world finds itself precariously poised on the cusp of a new era of nuclear posturing, wherein the slightest miscalculation could precipitate a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions. The presence of nuclear-armed submarines near Moscow can be seen as a direct threat, fueling tensions and increasing the likelihood of conflict. The possibility of nuclear war becomes more plausible in such a scenario, posing an existential threat to global security and stability. Alongside the submarine deployment, Trump is ramping up tariffs and trade restrictions, directly tying them to global alliances and behaviour, especially countries with growing ties to Russia. This includes India, a key member of the BRICS alliance, which has continued importing discounted Russian oil and weapons. With NATO on edge and global markets rattled, Trump’s military and economic posture is designed to reassert American dominance on multiple fronts. The deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines near Russia serves a dual purpose—military deterrence and strategic signalling. While Trump emphasised that the move is defensive and meant to “avoid unintended consequences,”. This development assumes particular significance in light of the strained relations between the two nations, exacerbated by the protracted conflict in Ukraine, cyber threats, and economic sanctions. The decisive move by the United States may well alter the global balance of power and intensify entreaties for diplomatic engagement, lest the situation spiral further out of control. The imperative for diplomatic engagement and restraint has never been more pressing, lest the situation escalate into a catastrophic conflict with far-reaching consequences for humanity. Indeed, the message resonates with unmistakable clarity. President Trump has imposed a substantial 25% tariff on Indian imports, accompanied by a penalty intricately tied to India’s persistent trade relations with Russia. His administration’s growing frustration with BRICS nations—encompassing Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa and China—who have chosen to maintain or strengthen economic ties with Moscow, notwithstanding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, is palpable. Trump’s trade strategy is inextricably linked with his foreign policy objectives, as he seeks not only to secure more favourable deals for the United States but also to utilise tariffs as a lever to isolate Russia and disrupt the emerging multipolar alliances exemplified by BRICS. Trump’s decision sends global markets and foreign leaders on alert. Several European nations have voiced concern about the dangerous path being carved by nuclear sabre-rattling. Financial markets also reacted with caution. Global stocks dipped, oil prices surged, and defence stocks rallied as investors priced in the risk of growing military conflict. Such volatile moves could create long-term instability unless world leaders return to diplomatic channels.
The deployment of nuclear submarines within striking range of Moscow is a concerning development that could have severe consequences. Prioritizing diplomacy, dialogue, and de-escalation measures is crucial in preventing the escalation of conflicts and ensuring global security and stability.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, now in its third year, continues to be a focal point of global tension, with Russia steadfastly defending its interests against external pressures. The Kremlin has consistently framed its actions as a necessary response to NATO’s aggressive eastward expansion, a stance rooted in its commitment to national security and regional stability. President Trump’s repeated calls for Russia to agree to a ceasefire and enter peace talks, accompanied by threats of strict deadlines and severe consequences, overlook the complexities of Moscow’s position. Russia’s leadership has shown resilience in resisting U.S. pressure, prioritising its sovereignty and strategic imperatives over acquiescence to Western demands. Trump’s recent deployment of nuclear-capable submarines, intended as a show of strength, risks escalating tensions unnecessarily. Such moves could be misinterpreted by Moscow as provocative, potentially destabilising an already delicate situation. Russia’s defensive posture, including its nuclear capabilities, serves as a deterrent against perceived threats from NATO and the U.S., which have historically encroached on Russia’s sphere of influence. Together, the U.S. and Russia own more than 10,000 nuclear warheads, harbouring nearly 90% of nuclear weapons across the globe. Combined, the US and Russia account for nearly 87 per cent of the world’s total nuclear arsenal. The geopolitical rivals control about 83 per cent of the nuclear warheads actually deployed or ready for operational use. Despite significant post-Cold War reductions, global nuclear arsenals remain at a very high level. As of January 2025, just nine countries are estimated to possess a total of approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads. Today, according to the nonprofit Arms Control Association, the US deploys 1,419 and Russia deploys 1,549 strategic warheads on several hundred bombers and missiles. The US conducted its first nuclear test explosion in July 1945; the following month, it dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Four years later, the Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear test explosion. As of 2025, the US Navy operates 71 submarines, all nuclear‑powered, making it the largest undersea force. By comparison, the Russian Navy fields fewer than 30 nuclear‑powered submarines, including approximately 10 strategic SSBNs, a mix of modern Borei and older Delta IV classes, that carry Bulava missiles. The absence of formal arms control talks, exacerbated by the collapse of key nuclear treaties, underscores the need for cooler heads to prevail. Moscow’s restraint in the face of such provocations highlights its desire to avoid a broader conflict, despite the West’s insistence on framing Russia as the aggressor. In a world teetering on the edge of uncertainty, Russia stands as a resolute guardian of its sovereignty, navigating the escalating tensions fueled by President Trump’s provocative deployment of nuclear-capable submarines near Moscow. Far from capitulating to Western pressure, Russia’s measured yet firm stance—bolstered by its BRICS partnerships and diplomatic agility—offers a stabilising force in a volatile global landscape. In this critical moment, Russia’s call for dialogue and de-escalation shines as a beacon of reason, urging the international community to prioritise diplomacy over confrontation to avert a catastrophic slide toward nuclear brinkmanship. Russia’s concern is that the international community should recognise Russia’s legitimate concerns about NATO’s expansion and the militarisation of its borders. Rather than escalating through military posturing, renewed diplomacy that respects Russia’s security needs could pave the way for de-escalation. The Kremlin’s commitment to protecting its interests should not be mistaken for belligerence but seen as a call for mutual respect and strategic stability. In a world where miscommunication could lead to catastrophic consequences, fostering dialogue over confrontation is essential. Russia’s measured approach in this conflict demonstrates its willingness to seek stability, provided its sovereignty and security are acknowledged. In times of heightened tensions, diplomacy and dialogue become crucial in preventing the escalation of conflicts. Implementing confidence-building measures and reducing military posturing can help de-escalate tensions and create a more stable environment. Collaborative efforts and international cooperation are essential in addressing global security challenges and preventing the outbreak of nuclear conflict. The deployment of nuclear submarines within striking range of Moscow is a concerning development that could have severe consequences. Prioritising diplomacy, dialogue, and de-escalation measures is crucial in preventing the escalation of conflicts and ensuring global security and stability. The precarious dance between the United States and Russia, set against the backdrop of the protracted Ukraine-Russia conflict, underscores the imperative of caution and diplomacy in the nuclear age. In the past 2017, during his first term as US president, Trump announced that he had sent two nuclear submarines to the Korean Peninsula. The move appeared to de-escalate tension. Soon afterwards, he held a meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un. Whether this latest move will lead to a new meeting with Putin is yet to be seen, however. As tensions escalate and rhetoric intensifies, the world watches with bated breath, cognizant that a single misstep could precipitate a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions. The urgent need for renewed diplomacy, strategic calm, and nuclear de-escalation has never been more pronounced. The fate of global stability hangs precariously in the balance, and the international community must collectively strive towards a path of peaceful resolution, lest the unthinkable become reality.
