The writer is an economist,
anchor, analyst and
the President of the All Pakistan Private Schools Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
The precipitous downfall of Bashar al-Assad, erstwhile President of Syria, would have been deemed inconceivable a mere week ago when insurgent forces initiated their astounding campaign against the regime from their stronghold in Idlib, situated in the north-western region of Syria. However, with rebel operatives presently occupying pivotal positions within the capital, a watershed moment has been reached in the nation’s history. Militarily speaking, Damascus has succumbed to the opposition, as the coalition of dissenting groups, spearheaded by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has wrought a seismic shift in the landscape of Syria’s protracted civil war. This lightning offensive, wherein several key cities have been commandeered in a matter of days, constitutes the most formidable challenge to President Assad’s authority in years, potentially heralding the termination of his tenure. The Syrian civil war, which commenced 13 years ago amidst the Arab Spring, has degenerated into a multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions, and international powers, including the United States, Iran, and Russia. The devastating consequences of this conflict are evident in the staggering statistics: over 500,000 Syrians have lost their lives, and millions more have been displaced from their homes. Assad’s ascension to power in 2000, following the demise of his father Hafez, who had ruled the country with an iron fist for 29 years, was initially met with optimism. However, these hopes were short-lived, as Assad junior inherited a rigidly controlled and repressive political apparatus, wherein opposition was not tolerated. The opposition forces have formally declared Syria liberated from Assad’s rule, as they surged into the capital, prompting the former president’s purported flight from Damascus, with his destination remaining unknown. The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week ago when rebels started their astonishing campaign against the regime from their base in Idlib, in Syria’s northwest. But, now the operatives are taking up key positions in the capital, this is a turning point for Syria. Militarily, Damascus has fallen, and advances by a coalition of opposition groups have abruptly transformed the landscape of Syria’s civil war. A coalition of opposition groups in Syria, headed by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has upended Syria’s civil war after a long stalemate. Their lightning offensive, taking over several key cities in just days, is the most direct challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s power in years and may signal the end of his rule. The former president in question reportedly fled Damascus, with no information yet as to which country will receive him. The stunning collapse of more than 53 years of al-Assad family rule has been described as a historic moment – nearly 14 years after Syrians rose in peaceful protests against a government that met them with violence that quickly spiralled into a bloody civil war. Just a week ago, the regime still maintained control over significant portions of the country. So how did it all unravel so quickly, did it all over?
Publicly, American officials have been cautious about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. But inside the U.S. government, some officials believe the group’s turn toward pragmatism is genuine, and that its leaders know they cannot realize aspirations to join or lead the Syrian government if the group is seen as a jihadist organization. Forces from Syria’s Kurdish ethnic minority became the United States’ main local partner in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces. After the extremist group was largely defeated, the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over towns in the northeast, expanding an autonomous region they had built there. But Kurdish fighters still had to contend with their longtime enemy, Turkey, which regards them as linked to a Kurdish separatist insurgency. There are also many other Syrian militias fighting with their own agendas and allegiances. The Syrian war began in 2011 with an uprising against the government and spiralled into a complex conflict involving armed rebels, extremists and others. The conflict started when Syrians rose up against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The protests were met with a violent crackdown, while communities took up arms to defend themselves. Civil war ensued, and other groups became involved. Amid the chaos, Syria’s ethnic Kurdish minority took up arms and gradually took territory it saw as its own. The Islamic State seized parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014 and declared that territory its “caliphate,” further destabilizing the region. Since the beginning of the civil war, the U.S. role in the Syrian civil war has shifted several times. The Obama administration initially supported opposition groups in their uprising against the government, providing weapons and training, with limited effect. Israel’s military activities in Syria have been mostly focused on airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets, especially in civilian areas and in some military personnel areas. The Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria, mostly against Syrian Kurdish-led forces. Turkey now effectively controls a zone along Syria’s northern border. Turkey also supports factions such as the Syrian National Army, a coalition of armed Syrian opposition groups. It probably gave tacit approval to the offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey issued a qualified approval of the rebel advance. Mr. Erdogan said that the opposition’s march continues. Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without incident. Al-Assad has received vital support from Iran and Russia, as well as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The rebels were backed by the United States and oil-rich Arab states like Saudi Arabia. Turkey also intervened to stop the advance of Kurdish militias. Throughout Syria’s civil war, Russia has been one of Mr. Assad’s most loyal foreign backers, sending Russian troops to support his forces and jets to bomb his enemies. It has maintained a strategic military presence in Syria with air and naval bases, which it uses to support military operations in the region. Because of the grinding war of attrition in Ukraine, Russia has been unable to support Syria’s government as forcefully as it has in the past. Russian airstrikes that attempted to slow the rebel advance have been relatively sparse. Syria is a core part of Iran’s of resistance, a network of countries and groups that includes Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen that hopes to counter the atrocities of Israel and reduce American influence in the Middle East. Iran support with weapons to Hezbollah across Iraq and Syria. Iran and Hezbollah have repaid the favour by sending thousands of militants to fight on Mr. al-Assad’s side during the civil war. Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions. Al-Assad became hugely unpopular as people found it harder and harder to survive, including his soldiers, the majority of whom did not want to fight for him. Soldiers and police officers were reportedly abandoning their posts, handing over their weapons, and fleeing ahead of the opposition advance. Militarily as well, the al-Assad regime has been weak for years, relying on Russian and Iranian military support to prop it up. But, Russia is bogged down in its Ukraine War and Iran and their Lebanese ally Hezbollah have been damaged by Israeli attacks – they could not come to the rescue of the faltering Syrian army.
The end of the Assad regime marks a seismic shift in the regional balance of power, the dramatic changes could lead to a dangerous power vacuum and eventually result in chaos and even more violence. That remains to be seen!
Assad shall be etched in the annals of history as the stalwart despot who callously quelled the protests of 2011, thereby precipitating a calamitous civil war. The devastating conflict has claimed the lives of over half a million souls, whilst six million more have been forcibly displaced from their ancestral homes, which led to a civil war. With the benevolent patronage of Russia and Iran, Assad had successfully vanquished the rebels and managed to cling to power. Russia had liberally employed its formidable aerial prowess, whilst Iran had dispatched military advisors to Syria and had mobilized the services of Hezbollah, its trusted militia in Lebanon, deployed its well-trained fighters. This did not happen this time. His allies, preoccupied with their own affairs, essentially abandoned him. Without their help, his troops were unable – and, in some places, apparently unwilling – to stop the rebels, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). First, they seized Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, last week, almost without resistance. Then Hama, and days later, the key hub of Homs. With insurgents also advancing from the east and the south, the offensive isolated Damascus. In a matter of hours, fighters entered the capital, the seat of Assad’s power. In the aftermath of Assad’s downfall, the Syrian cabinet, led by Al-Jalali, has expressed its willingness to extend an olive branch to the opposition and facilitate a seamless transition of power to a caretaker government. Similarly, HTS leader al-Julani has assured the public that all public institutions shall remain under the stewardship of the prime minister until they are formally handed over to the new administration. The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule will reshape the balance of power in the region. Iran, again, is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow. Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and it was key for the support of weapons and ammunition to the group. Hezbollah itself has been severely weakened after its year-long war with Israel and its future is uncertain. Another Iranian-supported country, the Houthis in Yemen, has been repeatedly targeted in air strikes. All these, plus militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, form what Tehran describes as the Power of Resistance, which has now been seriously damaged. This new picture will be celebrated in Israel where Iran is viewed as an existential threat. Many believe this offensive could not have happened without the blessing and active support of the US, Israel and Turkey. Turkey, which supports the rebels in Syria, has denied backing HTS. For some time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had pressed Assad to engage in negotiations to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict that could allow the return of Syrian refugees. At least three million of them are in Turkey, and this is a sensitive issue locally. But Assad had refused to do so. But what happens next? Did it all over? Probably, the game is not over yet, as HTS have their roots in al-Qaeda, and a violent past. The demise of the Assad dynasty, which had held sway over Syria for nigh on five decades, shall precipitate a seismic shift in the regional balance of power. Iran, in particular, shall feel the sting of Assad’s downfall, as Syria had served as a critical conduit for Iranian influence in the region. They have spent the last few years trying to rebrand themselves as a nationalist force, and their recent messages have had a diplomatic and conciliatory tone. However many are not convinced and are concerned about what they might be planning to do after toppling the regime. There is a lot of potential for Syria, just as there are a number of possible pitfalls if the various parties do not cooperate. As the curtain falls on Assad’s regime, a new chapter unfolds for Syria, marked by uncertainty and possibility. The demise of the Assad dynasty, which held sway over Syria for nearly five decades, will undoubtedly reshape the regional balance of power. Iran, in particular, will feel the sting of Assad’s downfall, as Syria served as a critical conduit for Iranian influence in the region. As the dust settles, the international community waits with bated breath to see what the future holds for Syria. Will the new leadership, led by HTS, be able to navigate the treacherous landscape of Syrian politics and forge a new path forward? Or will the power vacuum created by Assad’s downfall lead to further chaos and violence? The downfall of Damascus heralds the advent of a novel epoch, yet an aura of uncertainty pervades the air, marking a watershed moment in the tumultuous annals of Syria’s history, whilst the struggle for the nation’s future has merely commenced. One thing is certain that the end of the Assad regime marks a seismic shift in the regional balance of power, and the world will be watching with keen interest as Syria charts its new course. At the same time, the dramatic changes could lead to a dangerous power vacuum and eventually result in chaos and even more violence. That remains to be seen.