The writer is an economist,
anchor, analyst and
the President of the All Pakistan Private Schools Federation
president@Pakistanprivateschools.com
The relationship between Israel and Iran has been characterized by vitriol and brinksmanship for decades. But the past year has raised the temperature to new heights. Following Iran’s anticipated attack on Israel on 1 October, in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, when Tehran fired over 200 missiles at Israel, the opening of an Iraqi front underscores how Iran’s regional allies are intensifying pressure on Israel. Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran is the latest in a series of escalatory steps many fear could bring the region to wider war. Iran has thus far taken a measured response to the strike, downplaying its damage and significance. As military conflicts and civil wars in the Middle East intensify—and as the actors involved grow to include a complex array of states, armed groups, and militias-diplomatic efforts to end these hostilities have repeatedly faltered. The region is now plagued by immense human suffering and catastrophic material and moral losses, pushing it to the edge of collapse. This dangerous trajectory threatens the collective stability, peace, and development of the Middle East and risks extending a war of attrition with no clear end in sight. Several critical factors have driven the region to this precipice, with Egypt and Jordan caught in the middle. Identifying and analyzing these factors may help find a path toward recovery, with Cairo and Amman as key leaders. As fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran mount, it is clear that the United States is backing its longtime ally, Israel. But how much of an impact could Iran’s regional allies play in a war between the two? Over the past year, Yemen’s Houthis have launched regular attacks on Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in solidarity with Palestinians and in protest against Israel’s war on Gaza. The protracted war in Gaza has resulted in a substantial humanitarian crisis, with a reported 49,870 Palestinian fatalities in the past year, including approximately 19,000 children. In the past year in the Gaza Strip, Israel has bombed more than 90,000 targets on civilians, Despite international condemnation for its actions, Israel has expanded its military operations, targeting Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Furthermore, around 100,000 individuals have been wounded, and over 10,000 are presumed dead beneath the rubble, according to health authorities in the enclave. The war has led to the forced displacement of approximately 1.9 million people, accounting for 90% of the population, with many experiencing multiple displacements. Additionally, nearly half a million individuals face catastrophic food insecurity, exacerbating the crisis. Israel’s invasion of Rafah on May 6, 2023, despite international opposition, has resulted in the prolonged bombardment of the southern Gaza city, which previously served as a refuge for approximately 1.4 million Palestinians fleeing Israeli airstrikes. As a result, Israel died own soldiers numbered 5679 with Injured troops of Israel numbered 14,576. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) said Israel Must Prevent Genocidal Acts in Gaza. Since Israel assassinated longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a massive air strike on a residential suburb of Beirut last week, plenty of threats have been made across the region. Yemen’s Houthis and armed groups in Iraq have continued to target Israel in a show of deterrence, amid escalation between Tel Aviv and Tehran. Iraq, hitherto experiencing a period of relative calm since the American invasion, may soon become the Middle East’s next battleground. The recent deployment of drones by Iraqi militia against Israel on November 8th heralds an ominous escalation. The aerial defences of Israel failed to repel the attack launched by al-Nujaba and vowed big surprises in the coming days in both Hebrew and Arabic. The recent attack by Israel on Iran has brought the two nations to the brink of an all-out war. The conflict’s expansion into Iraq is a growing concern, as Iranian officials might attempt to use Iraq as a proxy to avoid retaliation. This move would allow Iran to launch strikes on Israel with less risk, as Iraq’s proximity to Israel would reduce the time available for Israeli air defences to intercept the attack. The reason behind Iran’s strategy is that Iran’s leadership is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, they are not interested in a regional war, but on the other hand, they cannot absorb the recent attack without retaliating. The Biden administration will try to pressure Iran not to retaliate, emphasizing the defensive nature of the attack. However, this will be a challenging task, and the hours ahead will be crucial in determining the outcome. As far as the Global Impact, the conflict’s expansion into Iraq would have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the region but also global politics and economies. The international community must closely monitor the situation and work towards a peaceful resolution to avoid a catastrophic escalation. In conclusion, the possibility of the Israel war expanding into Iraq is a growing concern.
The conflict’s expansion into Iraq would have far-reaching consequences, affecting regional and global politics and economies. The Iran-allied factions in Iraq have been perpetrating missile and drone attacks on Israel since the commencement of the war on Gaza. These assaults have resumed with renewed vigour following Israel’s escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah and Lebanon. It is likely that these hostilities will persist for as long as both conflicts continue to rage. The involvement of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq in the Israel-Iran confrontation bespeaks Tehran’s strategic deployment of regional proxies to exert indirect pressure on Israel, thereby avoiding direct military engagement. This tactic enables Iran to prosecute its interests while minimizing the risk of a direct confrontation with Israel. Militias such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq have launched numerous strikes on southern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights. Although the physical damage wrought by these attacks may be limited, they underscore the increasing capabilities of these groups to penetrate Israel’s traditionally robust air defence systems. This demonstrates Iran’s strategy of utilizing allies to apply pressure on Israel. In the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the ousting of Saddam Hussein, Iranian-backed militias capitalized on the resulting power vacuum and gained significant influence over Iraq’s political and security systems. Since 2014, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), also known as Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic, have evolved from a coalition of militias into an official state apparatus. Over the past year, the PMF has deepened its ties with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), equipping militias such as Kataib Hezbollah with advanced Iranian drone technology and missile systems. Many of these militias are equipped with small arms, drones (UAVs), mortars, and rockets, as well as more advanced ballistic and cruise missiles supplied by Iran. This has increased their capacity to strike Israeli targets with greater precision. While militias within the PMF have various interests – from internal affairs to directly confronting Israel – some factions may focus on increasing the pressure on Israel. And with Iraqi militias showing their growing capabilities, and Israel’s multi-front war showing no signs of abating, Iraq could potentially be pulled deeper into an escalating regional confrontation. Iraq’s government has sought to avoid being caught up in the confrontation, with concerns it could jeopardize its post-war stability and attempts to rebuild the country. For now, however, there is no clear indication that Israel is planning immediate military action in Iraq. These factions are more of a strategic nuisance to Israel rather than an immediate threat that would prompt a large-scale response. Iraqi armed groups warned that US bases in Iraq and the region would be targets if the US participated in any retaliation against Iran or if Israel used Iraqi airspace against Tehran. Similarly, when it comes to US bases in the region, including in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain and the use of Iranian airspace, Iran has warned that those states would be considered to be complicit in an attack against Iran, and their critical infrastructure would be targeted as well. A key leverage point for Iran and its allies is the oil facilities in the region. Iraqi armed groups have been determined that if Israel launches a big attack – Israel has also threatened to attack Iraq –they would hit back as well, including against oil facilities in the region. If the Persian Gulf energy exports are disrupted in a substantial way, it will have ramifications for the global oil market, for the global economy, and for Europe. Oil facilities have long been targets for all sides and strikes on them can cause huge disruption. In September 2019, the Houthis claimed drone attacks on two major oil facilities owned by Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant, an attack which the US blamed on Iran. In just one strike, 5 million barrels a day of crude production had reportedly been affected, about half of Saudi Arabia’s production, or 5 per cent of the global oil supply. Today, Israel has made the Middle East a battleground, which attacked in multiple military confrontations in pursuit of the total defeat of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran’s proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Concurrently, Israel aims to fully dismantle the two-state solution—the foundation of all agreements between Israel and Palestine, guaranteed by international and Arab stakeholders—and to deny the Palestinian people’s right to establish an independent state. Moreover, Israel seeks to shift the regional balance of power in its favour against Iran by exerting military pressure to freeze Iran’s nuclear program, restrict its military capabilities, and diminish its regional influence through the dismantling of its armed network. The Middle East is also a battleground for military responses from Hamas, Hezbollah, and other militias aimed at countering Israeli actions, alongside limited military reactions from Iran, which has been keen to avoid direct involvement in the regional conflict. This network serves the primary strategic objective of safeguarding the security of the Iranian regime, defending its advanced nuclear and military capabilities, and deterring regional threats from adversaries such as Israel and the United States. Iran aims to achieve this objective without fully engaging in the war, maintaining a stance of calculated escalation against Israel.
The Expansion of the Israel War Means A Possible Spillover into Iraq!!
The possibility of the entire region being dragged into a conflict that could lead to widespread violence and destruction remains the most dangerous of all threats. As a result of these battlegrounds, Egypt and Jordan, the two Arab states bordering the Palestinian territories, are confronted with significant threats to their national security and their regional roles. Both countries advocate for dialogue, diplomacy, and negotiation as the sole means to resolve wars and conflicts, and both aim to foster security and stability in the region. This is a particularly terrifying threat to both Egypt and Jordan, especially as they face dangers on multiple fronts. Egypt is grappling with challenges in the south due to the civil war in Sudan, heightened tensions at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, issues in the Horn of Africa with Ethiopia over water and security, and ongoing civil conflicts in Libya to the west. Similarly, Jordan confronts threats from the north, where widespread smuggling operations from Syria and a deteriorating security situation present significant risk, and from the east, where Shia militias exploit Iraqi territory amid a calculated escalation between Israel and Iran. Such a regional landscape—taking shape at a moment when the Middle East has yet to recover from the economic, social, and political crises of the past decade, with the Gulf being the only exception—places immense pressure on Egypt and Jordan, both of which advocate for peace, dialogue, diplomacy, and negotiation as their primary means of engaging with their immediate and extended neighborhoods. Cairo and Amman oppose nearly all of Israel’s current actions and reject the abrogation of the two-state solution. They also disapprove of Iran’s regional activities, particularly its focus on defending its own national security while blatantly disregarding the sovereignty and security of countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and effectively pushing Palestinian factions into a precarious situation from which Tehran has distanced itself. At this critical juncture, Egypt and Jordan view with great concern both the Israeli military incursions and Iran’s military pursuits. Their apprehension stems not only from a refusal to engage in a dangerous arms race but also from the recognition that the militarization of regional conflicts undermines their strategic commitment to peace as a viable path forward. The Palestinians have the right to rebuild their lives in a safe place and with dignity. Anything else, that is to say continuing to prioritize interests over rights, is unacceptable, essentially because renouncing our common humanity can only be synonymous with barbarism. The international community must closely monitor the situation and work towards a peaceful resolution to avoid catastrophic escalation. Entering Iraq into the War would have devastating consequences for the region and the world. It’s essential for the international community to come together and work towards a peaceful resolution to avoid a full-scale war.