The writer is an economist, anchor, geopolitical analyst
and the President of the All Pakistan Private Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistanprivate schools.com
n a bold and unexpected move, President Donald Trump’s recent Middle East tour has signalled a significant reset in U.S. foreign policy towards the region. Visiting Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar while conspicuously omitting Israel from his itinerary, Trump’s trip, which concluded on May 16, 2025, highlighted a transactional approach to diplomacy, focusing on securing over $ 3.2 trillion in business deals rather than traditional geopolitical alliances. This shift comes amidst a backdrop of China’s growing trade dominance globally, including in the Middle East, adding a layer of strategic competition to Trump’s economic focus. This approach marks a significant shift, focusing on economic gains over strategic alliances. These deals are strategically aimed at bolstering the U.S. economy, enhancing technological competitiveness, particularly against China, and creating significant job opportunities. In GDP and Economic Growth, the Saudi $600 billion investment alone could increase U.S. GDP by $900 billion to $1.2 trillion over four years, assuming a multiplier effect where each dollar invested generates additional economic activity. The UAE’s $1.4 trillion framework focuses on AI infrastructure and semiconductors, critical for competing with China’s technological advancements. These partnerships could accelerate U.S. innovation, with companies like Qualcomm, Cisco, and Amazon investing in Gulf tech hubs that also support U.S. research and development. Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion could potentially generate 623,400 jobs. particularly in high-skill industries, enhancing U.S. competitiveness. Boeing deals with Qatar and the UAE is estimated to support 254,000 U.S. jobs annually during production, totalling over 1 million jobs over the delivery period. The economic deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have the potential to significantly boost the U.S. economy by injecting hundreds of billions into high-growth sectors like AI, aerospace, energy, and manufacturing. Trump’s Middle East policy focuses on economic deals, excluding Israel, which has surprised many. Trump’s Middle East policy cannot be fully understood without considering the rising influence of China. As China has become the dominant trade partner for most regions, including the Middle East. It seems likely that these deals aim to counter China’s growing trade dominance in the region. As China is now the dominant trade partner for most of Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, and South America. In 2000, the U.S. had $2 trillion in trade, four times China’s $474 billion. By 2024, U.S. trade grew 167% to $5.3 trillion, while China’s trade surged 1,200% to $6.2 trillion, surpassing the U.S. in 2012. In the Middle East, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has expanded its economic footprint through infrastructure investments, posing a direct challenge to U.S. influence. China’s trade dominance include strategic partnerships, infrastructure development like the Belt and Road Initiative, and competitive pricing, as per user-provided details. For instance, ASEAN has consistently been China’s largest trading partner, with total trade value reaching 3.590 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 15.3% of China’s foreign trade. This growing Chinese presence prompted Trump to seek stronger economic ties with Middle Eastern countries. A key component of Trump’s strategy to counter China is through technology and trade deals. During his trip, Trump focused on advancing energy and commercial agreements, including securing Gulf investments in U.S. manufacturing, increasing U.S. LNG imports, deepening nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and locking in oil production commitments. Countering China’s Influence, Trump’s deals, such as AI chip sales to UAE and Saudi Arabia, aim to counter China’s trade dominance, highlighting these moves to align Middle Eastern countries with U.S. tech, restricting ties with China. These deals occur alongside a U.S.-China tariff de-escalation, with the U.S. reducing tariffs from 145% to 30% and China from 125% to 10% for 90 days, highlighting the broader trade and tech contest with China. The evidence leans toward a shift in U.S. priorities, potentially affecting U.S.-Israel relations. Controversy exists around Trump’s financial interests and their influence on policy decisions.
Surprisingly, Israel was omitted from Trump’s itinerary, leaving many in Jerusalem confused, as noted by this exclusion suggests a reorientation toward financially powerful Arab states, potentially straining U.S.-Israel ties, though the White House insists Israel remains part of the equation. Trump is shaking up US-Israel relations in a way no one has in decades. The president casts himself as Israel’s greatest defender, while this exclusion highlights a stark advantage Arab states hold over Israel in the current U.S. administration. The president has secured massive investment deals, appeared to snub Israel and scolded neoconservative interventionists. Trump’s financial lens on foreign policy means that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with their vast wealth, can offer deals that Israel cannot match. All in all, the Trump administration has been in direct talks with three of Israel’s main adversaries — Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis — to cut deals without Israel’s input, a nearly unprecedented situation according to longtime observers of relations between the two countries. Netanyahu pushed the US to insist on a complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. But, the US secretary of state and vice president have suggested they might be open to Iran maintaining some type of civilian nuclear program — effectively returning to a similar framework to the one Trump tore up in 2018. And while Israel welcomed Trump’s decision in March to step up the US air campaign against the Houthis, the Yemeni group that has been attacking with missiles and drones at Israel as well as ships traveling through the Red Sea since the start of the Gaza war, Trump abruptly announced an end to the bombing earlier this month. He said he had received assurances from the Houthis that they would refrain from attacking US ships. The rate at which the campaign was burning through American money and munitions also played a role. Trump’s announcement made no mention of Israel, even though the Houthis had attacked Tel Aviv’s airport days earlier. This raises questions about the balance between economic and strategic priorities and about the future of U.S.-Israel relations. While the U.S. has historically provided Israel with military aid and diplomatic support, Trump’s focus on economic transactions with oil-rich Gulf states suggests a reorientation of priorities. However, it’s crucial to note that Israel’s strategic importance to the U.S. remains undiminished, and future engagements may address Israeli concerns more directly. The exclusion of Israel, coupled with surprising policy decisions like lifting sanctions on Syria, has left many questioning the future of U.S.-Israel relations and the broader implications for American influence in the region. Trump’s four-day tour through the Gulf region was less about traditional diplomacy and more about striking megadeals. The President aimed to finalise agreements worth more than $3.2 trillion, encompassing sectors such as planes, nuclear power, artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and arms sales. This transactional approach aligns with Trump’s business-oriented worldview, where financial gains take precedence over ideological or strategic considerations. During his visit to Riyadh, Trump delivered a major address on May 13, 2025, outlining an optimistic vision for the Middle East, emphasising commerce, technology, and regional unity. He also extended an olive branch to Iran, offering a “new, better path” toward a hopeful future, signalling a potential shift in U.S. policy toward Tehran. Perhaps most strikingly, Trump announced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria, a move as one of the biggest foreign policy gambles of his second term. This decision reflects a pragmatic recognition of Syria’s strategic importance and its potential to tip into further chaos if left isolated, with Trump meeting Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh on May 14, 2025. Specific deals included securing $600 billion in new Middle Eastern investments into the U.S., primarily from Saudi Arabia. These investments focus on U.S. manufacturing, LNG imports, and nuclear cooperation, aiming to lock in oil production commitments. Trump’s Middle East policy reset has profound importance for regional dynamics. The exclusion of Israel, while not signalling an abandonment of the alliance, highlights a shift toward economic pragmatism over strategic loyalty. Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qater and the UAE, are gaining prominence due to their financial power and willingness to engage in lucrative deals. This could balance of power in the Middle East, by marginalising Israel’s influence. Moreover, Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria introduces a new variable into regional stability. While aimed at stabilising Syria and preventing further chaos, this move could stabilise the U.S. relations with the other regimes and regional actors. Controversy surrounds Trump’s financial interests, which may influence policy decisions. The Trump family has financial stakes in the region, including a luxury hotel in Dubai, a high-end residential tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and a golf course and villa complex in Qatar. These interests, involving Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, are noted to personally benefit President Trump. Indeed, Trump’s Middle East policy reset represents a surprising departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy in the region. By prioritising economic deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, Trump aims to secure investments and technology partnerships that can help the U.S. compete with China’s growing global influence.
By prioritizing economic deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, Trump aims to secure investments and technology partnerships that can help the U.S. compete with China’s growing global influence. Whereas, US-Israel relations are at a crossroads, the exclusion of Israel from the itinerary, underscores a shift toward financial pragmatism over strategic loyalty, a surprising departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy in the region.
The exclusion of Israel from his itinerary, while not signalling an end to the U.S.-Israel alliance, underscores a shift toward financial pragmatism over strategic loyalty. But despite preaching peace and prosperity for both Israelis and Palestinians, Trump made no strong push to end the war during this week’s trip. Trump suggested that he has not given up on the idea of depopulating Gaza and turning it over to the US — a proposal that amounts to ethnic cleansing. The US president heads to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar in search of deals and diplomatic wins, leaving Israel out of the itinerary. President Trump is accelerating investment in America and securing fair trade deals around the world, paving the way for a new Golden Age of lasting prosperity for generations to come. This approach, while innovative and balanced, includes regional stability, particularly with moves like lifting sanctions on Syria. Whether this strategy will prove sustainable remains to be seen. The geopolitical dance between nations involves forming alliances. As the ink dries on these monumental agreements, the spotlight now shifts to Israel, poised to redefine the contours of its partnership with the United States. The question on everyone’s mind: What strategic offerings will Israel extend to the U.S. to further enrich this bilateral relationship and cement its position as an indispensable ally? However, one thing is clear: Trump’s Middle East policy is reshaping U.S. engagement with the region in ways that are both surprising and significant, reflecting a broader and stable recalibration of American foreign policy in an era of intensifying global competition.