The writer is an
economist, anchor,
analyst and the
President of All
Pakistan Private
Schools’ Federation
president@Pakistan
privateschools.com
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election has significant implications for US-Pakistan relations. A second Donald J. Trump’s presidential term would mark a return to an era of unpredictable foreign policy, characterised by chaotic decision-making and a departure from traditional diplomatic norms. His approach would continue to prioritize national interests over international cooperation, leading to a shift away from President Biden’s alliance-building and internationalist approach. This change in direction would likely lead to increased tensions with China, a reevaluation of NATO and other alliances, and a more isolationist stance on the global stage, significantly affecting Pakistan. This realignment impacts U.S.-Pakistan relations, influencing Pakistan’s diplomacy, economic stability, and regional security strategy. Under Trump’s presidency, US-Pakistan relations are likely to remain low-key and transactional, with a focus on security-centric ties. The potential reduction in foreign aid from the US could have significant implications for Pakistan’s economy and development. Pakistan has historically relied heavily on foreign aid to support its development projects, and a reduction in this aid could lead to a significant funding gap. The relationship will revolve around counter-terrorism, the peace process in Afghanistan, and nuclear non-proliferation. However, the “do more” demands from the Trump-led White House and the Republican-dominated Congress will become a routine occurrence. Several challenges are likely to impact US-Pakistan relations under Trump’s presidency. Trump’s Middle East policy could result in a cut in remittances and a rise in layoffs of Pakistani workers in the Gulf States. The US’s strategic convergence with India will likely bring greater pressure on Pakistani diplomacy. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Pakistan’s economic relationship with the US remains a central pillar of bilateral ties. The US is Pakistan’s largest export market, with trade exceeding $5 billion annually as of 2023. The US is also a significant investor in Pakistan, particularly in sectors like energy, agriculture, and technology. To navigate these challenges, Pakistan would do well to work with the US in areas where interests converge and have frank talks on issues of divergence. This approach can help mitigate the risks associated with Trump’s presidency and pave the way for a more constructive relationship. While Trump’s presidency is likely to bring new challenges to US-Pakistan relations, it’s essential for both nations to work together to address common interests and concerns. By doing so, they can build a more stable and productive relationship that benefits both countries. Pakistan, positioned as a critical geopolitical player between South Asia and the Middle East, faces unique challenges as it balances relations with the U.S., China, and neighbouring nations. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is another area where the US can cooperate with Pakistan. This delves deeply into the potential impacts on Pakistan’s geopolitical strategy, economic stability, security apparatus, and domestic policies under a renewed Trump administration. The Trump administration’s first term (2017-2021) brought significant changes to this relationship, marked by a transactional approach. Pakistan experienced funding cuts, diplomatic pressure, and demands to address terrorism more aggressively. This period redefined U.S.-Pakistan relations, with Trump emphasizing Pakistan’s perceived failures in counter-terrorism. Trump’s re-election could intensify these dynamics, requiring Pakistan to reconsider its strategic objectives, especially regarding its partnerships with China and other regional players. The U.S.-China rivalry is expected to be a cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy, compelling Pakistan to navigate carefully between these two powers. Pakistan’s relationship with China, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provides substantial economic and infrastructural support crucial for Pakistan’s growth. However, Trump’s stance against China could pressure Pakistan to limit its engagement with Beijing, especially if sanctions or restrictions target countries involved in Belt and Road Initiative projects. This pressure places Pakistan in a dilemma. While the U.S. remains a vital trade partner and source of development aid, China offers infrastructure investments and strategic support that the U.S. does not provide. A Trump administration may view Pakistan’s alignment with China as contrary to American interests, leading to economic or diplomatic repercussions. To mitigate this, Pakistan might pursue a nuanced diplomatic approach, engaging with other global players like Turkey, Russia, and the European Union, to diversify its partnerships and reduce over-reliance on either the U.S. or China. Moreover, India’s role as a U.S. ally complicates the equation. Trump’s administration could continue fostering a strong U.S.-India relationship, potentially isolating Pakistan. This shift may necessitate a recalibration of Pakistan’s security strategy, especially as India benefits from advanced U.S. defence technology and intelligence sharing. Pakistan’s efforts to maintain its strategic autonomy would involve not only balancing relations with global powers but also strengthening ties with regional players to counterbalance India’s influence in South Asia. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could impact Pakistan’s security apparatus, particularly regarding counterterrorism cooperation. Trump previously criticised Pakistan for its perceived shortcomings in addressing terrorism, leading to funding cuts and the suspension of military aid. His administration may impose stricter demands for cooperation, potentially including conditions that infringe upon Pakistan’s sovereignty. In response, Pakistan would need to maintain a delicate balance, addressing U.S. counterterrorism requirements without compromising its domestic security priorities. The withdrawal of U.S. support could compel Pakistan to rely further on China for defence technology, training, and funding, which may provoke further U.S. distrust. An increased reliance on Chinese military hardware could deepen Pakistan’s military ties with China, potentially transforming the region’s security dynamics and increasing Pakistan’s strategic distance from the U.S.
Trump’s presidency would likely place Pakistan in a challenging position, where Islamabad must balance its longstanding relationship with the US against the pressures arising from its ties with China and the region.
Trump’s Middle Eastern policy, which includes strong support for Israel and confrontation with Iran, could create significant challenges for Pakistan. As a neighbouring country with strong economic and cultural ties to Iran, Pakistan would face challenges if forced to choose between aligning with U.S.-Saudi interests or preserving its relations with Tehran. Escalated U.S.-Iran tensions could also destabilize Pakistan’s western border, leading to increased security risks and economic disruptions. Pakistan’s alliance with Saudi Arabia further complicates this situation. Saudi influence over Pakistan, primarily through economic aid, remittances, and investment, provides significant leverage in Pakistan’s regional alignment. However, over-dependence on Saudi support could limit Pakistan’s policy options, particularly if Saudi and U.S. interests align against Iran. Navigating this complex web of alliances requires Pakistan to adopt a balanced stance that maintains its regional partnerships without alienating key allies, a difficult task given the polarized landscape in the Middle East. Trump’s hardline immigration policies, particularly those affecting Muslim-majority countries, could have substantial domestic repercussions for Pakistan. Pakistani citizens, especially students, workers, and professionals, may face restrictions when seeking opportunities in the U.S. Reduced immigration pathways could limit educational and career prospects for Pakistani nationals, affecting families that rely on remittances from expatriates in the U.S. and Gulf states. Immigration restrictions could also lead to public discontent and increased anti-U.S. sentiment within Pakistan. Trump’s policies, perceived as discriminatory, may foster nationalistic rhetoric among political factions, making it difficult for the Pakistani government to maintain cooperative relations with the U.S. The strain on cultural and educational exchanges could limit Pakistan’s human capital development, as fewer citizens gain exposure to Western education and professional training. Consequently, Pakistan may shift its focus to alternative destinations like Europe, the Gulf, or East Asia, yet these options may lack the same economic opportunities and growth prospects available in the U.S. Pakistan’s relationship with China also has been strengthening in recent years, and this could provide an alternative source of funding and support for development projects. Pakistan could explore new markets for its exports, such as the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Pakistan’s strategic location at the crossroads of Asia makes it an important hub for trade and commerce. Pakistan could develop its geo-economic position by investing in infrastructure development, such as ports, roads, and railways. To make the most of these opportunities, Pakistan can take several steps: Pakistan needs to demonstrate its commitment to combating terrorism and to take concrete steps to dismantle terrorist networks operating on its soil. Pakistan needs to promote economic reforms to attract foreign investment and to promote economic growth. Pakistan needs to engage in diplomatic efforts to promote its interests and to build alliances with other countries in the region. Pakistan could diversify its economy by investing in new sectors, such as technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Pakistan could strengthen its relationships with regional countries, such as Iran, Turkey, and the Central Asian republics. Pakistan can offer several attractions to President Trump and the USA to work as a strategic partner in South Asia and global politics. Pakistan offers a large market with a growing middle class, making it an attractive destination for US investments. Pakistan has been a key player in the global war on terror, and the US can continue to cooperate with Pakistan in this area. Pakistan’s efforts to combat terrorism can be supported through military aid and intelligence sharing. Pakistan is strategically located in South Asia, making it an important player in regional stability. The US can work with Pakistan to promote stability in Afghanistan and to counter the growing influence of China in the region. Pakistan has significant energy resources, including natural gas and coal. The US can cooperate with Pakistan in the development of these resources, which can help to reduce Pakistan’s dependence on imported energy. The US can cooperate with Pakistan in the areas of education and cultural exchange. This can help to promote people-to-people ties between the two countries and to foster greater understanding and cooperation. By taking these steps, Pakistan can demonstrate its commitment to cooperation with the US and can promote its interests in the region.
The stakes for Pakistan under a Trump administration would be exceedingly high, as maintaining robust diplomatic and economic ties with the United States is essential for balanced foreign relations. As American support becomes increasingly conditional and transactional, Pakistan may be compelled to rely more heavily on China for economic and strategic support, should American aid and investment dwindle. Trump hath demonstrated a clear predilection for India as a strategic counterweight to China, which may deepen upon his return to office. The United States may prioritise its broader Indo-Pacific strategy over addressing South Asian security dynamics, risking a diplomatic rift if Pakistan perceives a pro-India bias that disregards its security interests. Moreover, Trump has previously expressed concerns regarding nuclear security in South Asia, and his administration may impose more stringent conditions on American aid and support for Pakistan. Increased scrutiny of Pakistan’s nuclear assets may be part of his foreign policy, with new demands for transparency and cooperation. In recent years, Pakistan has made significant progress in improving its economy, reducing poverty, and promoting education and healthcare. The United States can build upon this progress by continuing to support Pakistan’s development efforts. To strengthen their partnership, the United States and Pakistan can take several steps: The United States can promote trade and investment in Pakistan by providing greater access to its market and supporting Pakistani businesses; The United States and Pakistan can enhance their security cooperation by sharing intelligence, best practices, and capacity-building initiatives; The United States can support Pakistan’s education and healthcare sectors by providing aid and assistance. By taking these steps, the United States and Pakistan can strengthen their partnership and promote peace, stability, and prosperity in the region. To make the most of these opportunities, Pakistan could consider developing a diversified foreign policy that is not reliant on a single country or bloc. Pakistan should invest in infrastructure development, such as ports, roads, and railways, to develop its geo-economic position. Pakistan should promote economic diversification by investing in new sectors, such as technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Pakistan should strengthen its relationships with regional countries, such as Iran, Turkey, and the Central Asian republics. The future of Pakistan-US relations under the Trump administration remains uncertain. While some in Pakistan believe that Trump’s presidency could have a positive impact on Imran Khan and the relations between the two countries, others are more cautious. Ultimately, the trajectory of Pakistan-US relations will depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the policies of the Trump administration, the response of the Pakistani government, and the evolving geopolitical landscape of the region. Upon President Trump’s resumption of office, it is highly probable that his foreign policy shall revert to an “America First” doctrine, wherein the interests of the United States shall be paramount, and immediate economic and security advantages shall be vigorously pursued. Consequently, it is likely that a substantial diminution in foreign aid to Pakistan shall occur, with funds being allocated exclusively towards specific security initiatives, rather than long-term development projects. Trump’s presidency would likely place Pakistan in a challenging position, where Islamabad must balance its longstanding relationship with the US against the pressures arising from its ties with China and the region.