Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is leading in the northern state of Haryana but is expected to fall short in Indian-administered Kashmir as vote counting continues for two state elections. An alliance between the Congress and the regional National Conference (NC) is ahead in Jammu and Kashmir.
These elections mark the first state polls in India since the general election, where the BJP returned to power with a reduced majority in June. A third consecutive victory in Haryana would be a significant boost for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of the upcoming state elections.
The Congress had been confident of winning Haryana, but analysts suggest that complacency, internal strife, and consolidation against the influential Jat community may have affected its chances. However, the Congress found some relief in Haryana’s Juliana constituency, where top wrestler Vinesh Phogat secured her first election victory.
Exit polls had once again been proven wrong, as they had predicted a Congress majority in Haryana and a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. Both states have 90 assembly seats, and a party or coalition must surpass the halfway mark to form a government. So far, the Congress-NC alliance is leading in around 48 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP is ahead in 29, buoyed by its strong performance in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
This was the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019 when the region’s autonomy was revoked and it was converted into a federally governed territory. The three-phase elections saw prominent leaders from both the BJP and Congress pledge to restore full statehood.
Many voters expressed hope that the election would allow them to raise their concerns after years without local representation. However, some remain sceptical about how much authority the new government will have, given that major decisions require approval from the federally appointed lieutenant governor.
In Haryana, the ruling BJP faced anti-incumbency after a decade in power. The Congress’s chances were bolstered by public anger over controversial federal farm laws, now repealed, and the BJP’s short-term army recruitment scheme, Agniveer, both of which had sparked protests. Despite these challenges, the BJP appears set to secure a third consecutive win.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the 2024 election was closely watched as a sign of normalcy in a region long plagued by insurgency. The region has endured over three decades of violent conflict, with India blaming Pakistan for fueling the unrest—a charge Pakistan denies. For the first time in years, some separatists, who advocate for Kashmir’s independence, participated in the election. Smaller parties and regional players had hoped to play a pivotal role in government formation, especially with predictions of a hung assembly.